World War 3?

[Stewie521]

So North Korea has officially declared war on South Korea, and the United States. And when I say that, I do mean they have withdrawn their armistice and officially gone into a state of war. The Declaration was a response from a US training exercise in South Korea involving a B-2 Stealth Bomber carrying dummy bombs. The North Korea response to that included rallies, protestes, and a promise from Kim Jong-Un to "wipe out US forces in South Korea, and send a 'merciless' attack on the US mainland." The US's response to their threat was to send another fly-over with two armed B-2 Stealth Bombers. This act was said to "ensure the South Koreans that the States will be ready to defend them." So far, South Korea is viewing it as another ordinary threat, but is still taking it as a possible war. The States is taking this as a serious Nuclear threat, but is still unsure about what is to come. Here is a video on this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=1D_5H8xI6Bo

NK has ultimately upped their activity around their Nuclear Silos, putting South Korea-US bases at risk, as well as places like Japan, and Washington. Although their missiles can't officially reach us, Nuclear Fallout is always a potential. As well as millions of lives lost.

China, and Russia are all calling for peace, but if this goes bad, it could turn out like the Cold War, but without the standoff. I'm certain should they feel threatened, the US would drop the first bomb, to "protect the integrity of their citizens" or whatever, ultimately that could turn into a reason for the Republicans to get Obama to not cut military funding. After all, the war on "South Korea" was a US caused thing, so I personally believe that it is more focused on the States, rather than South Korea.

But above all else, Allies are almost always called into a war. Right now, China is trying to be persuaded to take the US side of things, but could always turn at the last second. As for Russia, it appears they stand for peace between the North and South, but I'm not so sure about the other countries view points on this.

This could ultimately result in World War 3, a Nuclear Apocalypse, or just a quick fire fight. As of right now, there is no telling wha Kim Jong, or his army would do in a case of war.

[Tom]

China and Iran have been on North Korea's side of the table for a while now. I'd like to hope it's just for local political reasons and not actually being on the side of a crazed dictatorship intent on destroying the world. But you never know. Back in the day, some countries actually sided with the gemans....

[Mr. Analog]

So, a few points;

1. North Korea has been at war since 1950, they did not sign any peace treaty. if you've ever wondered why the US President has had access to "emergency" wartime powers since the 50s, now you know.

2. North Korea has been rattling this particular sabre for decades, in the past threats have been made and aid was given in return for "stability", only to fall apart again when aid was needed again. This year it is known they had a particularly bad growing season and China has stopped importing NK oil. With no food and chilly relations between their limited trade partners they are suffering hard right now and are rattling the sabre again.

3. NK's nuclear capability is extremely limited due to lack of a delivery system. Their first satellite launch (which failed) was recovered in the ocean and inspected, the system was a highly modified SCUD missile based on an outdated Russian design, more likely to blow up on the launchpad than hit any viable target. The range is limited and slow, so far the only advantage being nuclear capable is removing the possibility of a conventional invasion (unless they truly start the shooting first).

4. Posturing their military has also been a traditional event, they move units around and build up close to the borders and disputed waterways on a yearly basis (and yes, even taken potshots at US, South Korean and Japanese border patrols)

My suspicion at this point is that North Korea is starving and stretched to its absolute limit, and with both China and Russia not willing to become involved with an increasingly unstable country they are out of options, trading partners and peers.

Perhaps they will try to do something, however it will be swiftly dealt with. I feel that NK will probably fall soon, the real tragedy from all this is going to be in humanitarian aid and reunification (which is going to be a nightmare, probably for decades).

Oddly the Western media is all riled up about this but for most people I know in SK it's business as usual.

At this point the only true fear I have about NK is when their iron curtain finally falls, how many corpses will we find behind it.

EDIT: here's the story regarding China's sanctions against NK: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-21710919

China has historically been NKs only friend in Asia, and now they're backing out. When China think's you're too crazy to be friends with you know things are bad.

[Tom]

Things seem to have advanced a little further than they normally do though.

"The series of North Korean threats ? announcing all-out war, scrapping the cease-fire agreement and the non-aggression agreement between the South and the North, cutting the military hotline, entering into combat posture No. 1 and entering a `state of war' ? are unacceptable and harm the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula," Kim said.

sure its a lot of sabre rattling, which is pretty much more of the same for NK... But yeah, a couple extra steps were taken this time.

[Stewie521]

1. North Korea has been at war since 1950, they did not sign any peace treaty. if you've ever wondered why the US President has had access to "emergency" wartime powers since the 50s, now you know.

So North Korea has officially declared war on South Korea, and the United States. And when I say that, I do mean they have withdrawn their armistice and officially gone into a state of war. The Declaration was a response from a US training exercise in South Korea involving a B-2 Stealth Bomber carrying dummy bombs. The North Korea response to that included rallies, protestes, and a promise from Kim Jong-Un to "wipe out US forces in South Korea, and send a 'merciless' attack on the US mainland." The US's response to their threat was to send another fly-over with two armed B-2 Stealth Bombers. This act was said to "ensure the South Koreans that the States will be ready to defend them." So far, South Korea is viewing it as another ordinary threat, but is still taking it as a possible war. The States is taking this as a serious Nuclear threat, but is still unsure about what is to come.

Mhmm, North Korea and South Korea have never had peace, only a cease-fire. But Kim Jong-Un has recently withdrawn their cease-fire and declared an official state of war between the two. If it were a Freeciv game....

[Thorin]

Here's the actual statement as broadcast in English on North Korean TV: http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/nightwatch/2013/03/31/north-koreans-declare-war-and-no-one-notices-n1553739/page/full/.  This article also includes an interesting interpretation, suggesting that it is just more of the same rhetoric, and that it shows the North Koreans are becoming increasingly desperate for someone else to start something so they can have a war without being blamed as the ones who started it.  And why?  Well, if people are starving because of a poor growing season and Chinese sanctions allowing less food into North Korea, then the despot has to show that he's doing something about it or else risk getting overthrown and beaten to death in a ditch (see Libya's Gaddafi and the Arab Spring).

If you read the actual text of the statement, it really is just more of the same with perhaps a little more detail about where they'd like the South Koreans to go so that the North Koreans can attack them.  There are lots of internet comments suggesting the US take NK out now, perhaps by striking the leadership, but if we're patient enough the Chinese will get so annoyed with the North Koreans that they finally drop all support and NK collapses.  As Mr. A says, the biggest downside to this is how many people may end up dying in North Korea.

[Tom]

My worry is desperate despots will do insane things.

[Stewie521]

My worry is desperate despots will do insane things.

Right, and a "suspected" heavy drinker for a leader with ultimate power and control. Then add some nukes and you got yourself a [perfect] combo for disaster...

[Mr. Analog]

I'm pretty sure Dear Leader Jr would conveniently disappear if things got too out of control. There was a coup attempt late last year from members of the DRPK equivalent of the CIA http://intelnews.org/2013/03/15/01-1217/

Again I see references to nuclear arms, North Korea has no delivery system for that type of weapon (beyond limited range Soviet era bombers), so IF there was an attack it would likely start with heavy artillery over the DMZ followed by mass invasion on foot. If they really were crazy they would utilize chemical / biological weapon stockpile, again likely through artillery rather than conventional ballistic missiles (known to be
Soviet era SCUD variants, see first Iraq war for how well that platform worked out).

Like I say, IF they start something it would be over incredibly fast probably with a high casualty rate. They only have tactical nuke capability so even if that were optioned it would likely be some last stand battle on their own turf.

But I highly doubt any of this will come to pass, I suspect what we will see is the DPRK army taking control followed by a civil war and then a total collapse.

[Darren Dirt]

NK rattling d'sabres also being discussed at a small poker forum I frequent -- with a less-than-serious tone!
http://www.sixandfourum.com/all-that-intellectual-stuff/north-korea-declare's-stae-of-war/msg33547/#msg33547


ditto for The Big Poker Forum:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/41/politics/n-korea-declares-war-s-korea-means-1316307/index3.html#post37848763

[Tom]

[Mr. Analog]

Hah, so true.

I also love the media spin on all this stuff. The US, South Korea and Japan sail their combined navy close to NK borders and it's "maneuvers", NK loads two SCUD missiles and it's "dangerous posturing"

Like, are people that dumb (hint; they are) LOLOLOL

[Tom]

Apparently NK also showed off some photos of exercises they were doing with /6/ hovercraft. Turns out though that all but two were photoshoped! ahahah.

[Mr. Analog]

LOL

[Thorin]

Somebody watched Jon Stewart, eh, Tom?

Here, this shows that North Korea's leadership thinks they're going to save the world after they defeat the US and its allies: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/02/05/north_korea_s_propaganda_dream_sequence_is_bizarre_hilarious_and_more_than.html

Keep in mind every statement from North Korea so far has said that if they are provoked they will fight back with all available firepower.  At this point not even Russia or China or even Fidel Castro support North Korea's statements, and pretty much every country sees North Korea as the one provoking.

I am a little concerned that Kaesong has been closed to the South Koreans working there, though.  It was a shining example of two peoples working together for each other's betterment even though their leaders were diametrically opposed.  Especially since the South Koreans working at Kaesong were unable to leave North Korea at least for a short while, suggesting this could turn into a hostage crisis (in the end they just needed transportation).

[Tom]

Somebody watched Jon Stewart, eh, Tom?

What? What ever could you be talking about?