Sean Cooper over at slate.com thinks that disc media is on the way out...
Quote...these new high-def formats will extend the market for home-entertainment media indefinitely. Both formats will fail, not because consumers are wary of a format war in which they could back the losing team, a la Betamax. Universal players that support both flavors of HD should appear early next year. No, the new formats are doomed because shiny little discs will soon be history. Here are four reasons why.
Why HD-DVD and Blu-ray are dead on arrival. (http://www.slate.com/id/2153877/fr/rss/)
Interesting read, what do you guys think?
Its tough to say, I think that HD discs will carve out a niche market in the end.
DVDs are here to stay for the long haul at least till better "on demand" services are available
Maybe the original Star Trek was right -- all the "discs" we know of will just be thin little colorful squares of plastic containing bagiglions of datum.
Quote from: Mr. Analog on November 16, 2006, 01:21:32 PM
Interesting read, what do you guys think?
I think using exagerated headlines is dumb and the article won't be worth my time to read. Many people will always want to "own" their stuff, in this case movie collection, as opposed to renting it, or downloading a time-limited copy. HD is obviously the future, so one of either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will fill that market of people wanting to own a copy of the content.
Quote from: Cova on November 16, 2006, 03:41:37 PM
Quote from: Mr. Analog on November 16, 2006, 01:21:32 PM
Interesting read, what do you guys think?
I think using exagerated headlines is dumb and the article won't be worth my time to read. Many people will always want to "own" their stuff, in this case movie collection, as opposed to renting it, or downloading a time-limited copy. HD is obviously the future, so one of either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray will fill that market of people wanting to own a copy of the content.
Well, maybe read the actual article and you'll know why the guy has such a polarized viewpoint.
In all honestly, i invested a TON of money into DVDs these last few years. The thought of buying them yet again in a new medium wheather it be Disc or on-demand makes me sick to my stomach.
However what id like is to Convert my entire DVD collection into electronic format with the ability to centrally store it so that from any TV in my house i can "Access" my libray without physically loading a disc. With the ability to transfer it to a portable device ah la IPod video for on the go watching.
That IMO is the ultimate format, never degades or loses quality, store in your pocket (eventually), buy it once for all future display devices.
Im sure you can do that now... but i think the technology needs to catch up and make it easy. Im not ready yet to start ripping DVDs; that and how many terabites of storage would i need? Hard drives still need to get a little cheaper to make it viable.
That was one of the reasons cited in the article that really stuck with me, the idea that we might actually be transcending ROM media as the delivery source / active storage medium for entertainment content. To be sure physical ROM storage will be around for archiving, in my opinion that won't change. I think P2P (legal or otherwise) is probably the best conduit for HD content delivery and that playback via some kind of media centre PC is likely to replace a physical media player for many of us.
Are we willing to wait around while the 10GB movie downloads? I know that I would be hard pressed to download 10GB in 2 hours, but thats the type of bandwidth required to stream a move in 1080p.
I agree with Cova in that people want to own the media, I want to be able to pop in a disc and begin to watch it right now. The idea of storing it in digital format like Druid suggests would also kick ass, but the cost of storage is far to high. Riping a single episode of BS:G in 100% quality and 5.1 sound is 900MB, might not sound like a lot with current Hard Drive sizes at 500GB+, but thats just a 45 minute episode in non-HD quality.
I don't think we can just drop the "disc" standard yet, they cost pennies to make, and hold data for a very long time.
The reason I say that HD will be a niche is that I don't think many people are going to replace the TV they got in the family room that has been servicing them for years to get a new fangled HD-TV. Most of us here are well above the "normal" standard of living and can easily drop the required cash to get a TV and think nothing of dropping off a perfectly good 27" to the salvation army (not to mention most of us a pretty geeky and must own the latest gadgets). So having us stand around and discuss is probably a pretty poor sampling.
You should see my TV. I would LOVE to go out and buy a nice 32-42" LCD TV or HiDef Projector, it just aint going to happen no matter how much I want it to.
My TV is one of those nice cabinet TVs that sit on the floor. 27 inches of grade A 1980s technology. And yes, its real wood! ;D
http://www.thedvdwars.com/
VERY interesting numbers... Looks like HD-DVD is ahead in a few areas.
Quick show of hands, who thinks this is a Hardware topic? I know we are talking about a format, but I deals heavily with electronics.
Hmm, well how do you like that. I would have put money on Blu-Ray leading
HD-DVD is easier for manufacturers. It uses the same basic processes to make HD-DVD disks. Its also backwards compatible. You can make a HD-DVD disk with plain old DVD layers under the HD-DVD layers.
Quote from: Lazybones on November 16, 2006, 07:55:39 PM
http://www.thedvdwars.com/
VERY interesting numbers... Looks like HD-DVD is ahead in a few areas.
Quick show of hands, who thinks this is a Hardware topic? I know we are talking about a format, but I deals heavily with electronics.
I think this is about whether or not physical media will have relevance in the future, so I agree, let's shift this over to hardware.
Im not surprised really, HD DVD players are cheaper right now, and from my POV both formats have equal shelve space in the store. Be interesting to see these numbers after ps3 establishes its self. Really; show of hands, how many ppl think that the PS2 was largely responsible for the original jump to DVD? I remember when i bought my first DVD player (well conned into one by an international stereo scam, but that’s a different story). Owning a DVD player was a big thing, and at that point they were in the $400 - $500 range. PS3 immediately put DVD players into the homes of millions.
PS3 will do the same. There’s no doubt that PS3 will eventually sell millions. That’s A-LOT of established blue ray players, so when those ppl are in the store, which format will they buy? the choice is easy. Sure you can get an HD-DVD player for XBOX, but there’s two problems; one only a certain percentage of xbox owners will shell the extra cash for the player, two what about all the non xbox owners? Lets face it, im rooting for HD DVD, but they got a though battle a head, established user base, and big movie studios releasing Blue-Ray only blockbusters.
It's Sony's gamble and theirs to screw up, and with their track record lately, they are their own worst enemy.
The story of DVD adoption is a strange one, back in the mid-to-late 90s there was another format war of sorts, back then it was DVD vs DivX Set-Top Box and the set top box was the pony a lot of industry bigwigs were banking on, of course that was when the argument was strongly in the hand of the consumer wanting to own something substantial (rather than just "renting" a transient file). DVD started creeping into the retail scene around '98/'99 as I recall, they started with one or two shelves and as word of mouth spread about the monumental leap in video technology popularity started to catch on. DVD offered significantly better picture and sound quality (over VHS), no rewinding, no degradation and alternate soundtrack and subtitle options. Sure, the nerd crowd were the early adopters, but they always are (and sometimes they lose, like with LaserDisc) but the advances were so significant I think it was impossible to stop the spread of DVD as "the" medium for watching video at home.
Its actually sorta humorous you bring that up Druid, my first DVD player was my Xbox.
I have been saying it though for a while, the PS3 and Blu-Ray was super smart on Sony's behalf, they can sell the Blu-Ray "idea" and "saturation" by pointing out historical data of the PS2 and say that the PS3 will equal or better those massive numbers (true or not). The Microsoft HD-DVD player isn't a bad idea though for those of us with an Xbox 360 (6 million) its a very affordable and attractive way to get into "HD movie generation" compared to the alternatives (standalone, PS3).
IN the end, the losers will most definitely be the consumers if the 2 formats can't play together. A duel format player is obviously the way to go, but between licensing the Toshiba format and Sony format I could only imagine the costs of these machine. Currently they already have some serious power in them and while the price they sell them at is absurd, cost to make them isn't cheep (compared to the DVD standard). Makes you wonder though, would Toshiba or Sony license their tech if they knew it was going into a duel player?
I had thought I saw some stories on Engadget about Dual format players, but I haven't been able to find them again.
Just got it today.
It comes with King Kong on HD-DVD and I happen to own King Kong on DVD, so I am rather eager to get them stopped on similar frames and see if can notice much of a difference.
Early Xmas gift from the woman :P
Quote from: Shayne on November 17, 2006, 01:32:19 PM
Just got it today.
It comes with King Kong on HD-DVD and I happen to own King Kong on DVD, so I am rather eager to get them stopped on similar frames and see if can notice much of a difference.
Early Xmas gift from the woman :P
Congrats. Does she get a staff discount on hardware?
She no longer works for Rogers, I grabbed it at EB
Wow, its larger then i though it would be... well taller
I sugested to my wife today that we should get one. She told me to wait untill after Christmass.
Quote from: Shayne on November 17, 2006, 01:35:40 PM
She no longer works for Rogers, I grabbed it at EB
Gotcha. I wish her good luck in her new job, then.
If we can have 3 successful game consoles in the wild each with proprietary discs and games, why can't we have 2 movie players?
Quote from: Shayne on December 07, 2006, 12:23:40 PM
If we can have 3 successful game consoles in the wild each with proprietary discs and games, why can't we have 2 movie players?
Three Reasons:
1. People are used to buying a game console every 5 years or so and from the get go there were always incompatible alternatives. Video players didn't become popular until the late 70s early 80s and most people got used to the idea that there is only "one format" (and all others are "inferior") and since most people ignored Laserdisc and set-top DivX they saw DVD as a graduated version of VHS. Most folks have only had a DVD player in their house for 5 years and the industry is trying to sell them "yet another" video format. The vibe I get from this is "too soon".
2. Media content, I mean when you bought NHL '95 it was a great game, playing it today would seem lessened by the most up to date version of NHL which is only compatible with new consoles. If I bought
Indiana Jones back in '84 on VHS I would have noticed in the late 90s that the quality was starting to go and that there was a new format which promises not to decay over time. So, now that you have a "good" version of your movie do you need another new version only 5-6 years after you bought the DVD? Nothing significant has changed with the actual content, would there be any point to buying a new version of
Indy if it has no additional intrinsic value.
3. Betting on the slow horse. Nobody wants to be stuck with the loser format, and the way that the two major competitors have been posturing it gives the average consumer the impression that it's Blu-Ray vs HD DVD. The solution for this so far seems to be offering a player that will play DVD, Blu-Ray and HD DVD but I can't see this catching on mostly because of all the technology licensing that would have to go into a single unit. I think most manufacterors will just bet on one format for the win and make exslusivly that.
IMHO. Give DVD 5 more years before attempting a new format, and when it's done it better be just one format to rule them all.
I guess as an aside I think the other factor to consider with the token ressistance that certainly I feel is that Blu-Ray / HD-DVD is not a market driven innovation.
- Super 8: People wanted to make home movies.
- Beta / VHS: People wanted to make home movies cheaper and record stuff off of TV..
- DVD: People wanted a format that didn't require rewinding and would have greater longevity than VHS.
- Blu-Ray / HD-DVD provides greater amount of storage in a form factor compatible with existing DVD purportedly to store High Definition content. HDTV was lobbied for by the FCC and is being mandated by the United States Government as a forced upgrade for television signal supposodly to reopen bandwidth on the cable signal for Emergency purposes (though the tin-foil hats out there think it might have something to do with enforcing DRM and content management in a centralised way).
So far as I can tell, HD really only offers better picture quality for content developed in HD. So I'm sure the video for
Underworld Evolution looks great in HD however
Citizen Kane won't look any better than it already does on DVD. Were people screaming out 6 years ago for higher bandwidth video content, are they screaming out for it now, will it change when the
average home TV is 62" 16:9 or bigger?
AS ALWAYS prove me wrong children, prove me wrong.
I stopped screaming years ago, when the voices told me to stop.
PS: prove yourself wrong, whydontcha!? Huh?
Quote from: Darren Dirt on December 07, 2006, 04:57:25 PM
I stopped screaming years ago, when the voices told me to stop.
PS: prove yourself wrong, whydontcha!? Huh?
I can't, they're out to get me!
(http://vger.homeip.net/images/peter_no_girls.gif)
Quote from: Mr. Analog on December 07, 2006, 04:51:13 PM1. People are used to buying a game console every 5 years or so and from the get go there were always incompatible alternatives. Video players didn't become popular until the late 70s early 80s and most people got used to the idea that there is only "one format" (and all others are "inferior") and since most people ignored Laserdisc and set-top DivX they saw DVD as a graduated version of VHS. Most folks have only had a DVD player in their house for 5 years and the industry is trying to sell them "yet another" video format. The vibe I get from this is "too soon".
Perhaps the perception needs to change. While I think it would suck to need two players (a dual format has been talked about but not actually released) it really comes down to market place saturation if we will ever get another true "format to rule them all", even then it would have to come from some sort of open standard as no company wants another company to come up with the next big thing and then pay royalties on it. As for too soon, I totally disagree, swing by my place and check out an HD movie.
Quote from: Mr. Analog on December 07, 2006, 04:51:13 PM2. Media content, I mean when you bought NHL '95 it was a great game, playing it today would seem lessened by the most up to date version of NHL which is only compatible with new consoles. If I bought Indiana Jones back in '84 on VHS I would have noticed in the late 90s that the quality was starting to go and that there was a new format which promises not to decay over time. So, now that you have a "good" version of your movie do you need another new version only 5-6 years after you bought the DVD? Nothing significant has changed with the actual content, would there be any point to buying a new version of Indy if it has no additional intrinsic value.
I cant agree with this. How many versions of Star Wars, LotR, etc do we have and yet its on the SAME format none the less.? To introduce a next generation format and re-release titles is inevitable be it now or be it in 5 years. A chance to get a few more bucks. The great thing about HD-DVD players is that they can still play your old normal dvds and in many cases upscale them and through software increase the quality a little bit. VHS doesn't really have this ability (unless you get one of those combo jobbies but in that case they are normally a pretty generic version of both machines (i have one, and its crap)).
Quote from: Mr. Analog on December 07, 2006, 04:51:13 PM3. Betting on the slow horse. Nobody wants to be stuck with the loser format, and the way that the two major competitors have been posturing it gives the average consumer the impression that it's Blu-Ray vs HD DVD. The solution for this so far seems to be offering a player that will play DVD, Blu-Ray and HD DVD but I can't see this catching on mostly because of all the technology licensing that would have to go into a single unit. I think most manufacturers will just bet on one format for the win and make exclusively that.
Time Warner didnt bother to make a decision and simply releases titles on both formats. I would wager that come this time next year, when places like Rogers and Blockbuster start brining in titles and actual numbers in terms of volume of rentals and purchases are shown, we will know which format will become the leader.
Many analysts like this guy http://news.digitaltrends.com/talkback158.html have given some good indication that HD-DVD will win out based on Sony betting the farm on the PS3 and being unable to deliver the numbers.
Quote from: Mr. Analog on December 07, 2006, 04:51:13 PMIMHO. Give DVD 5 more years before attempting a new format, and when it's done it better be just one format to rule them all.
I guess as an aside I think the other factor to consider with the token ressistance that certainly I feel is that Blu-Ray / HD-DVD is not a market driven innovation.
- Super 8: People wanted to make home movies.
- Beta / VHS: People wanted to make home movies cheaper and record stuff off of TV..
- DVD: People wanted a format that didn't require rewinding and would have greater longevity than VHS.
- Blu-Ray / HD-DVD provides greater amount of storage in a form factor compatible with existing DVD purportedly to store High Definition content. HDTV was lobbied for by the FCC and is being mandated by the United States Government as a forced upgrade for television signal supposodly to reopen bandwidth on the cable signal for Emergency purposes (though the tin-foil hats out there think it might have something to do with enforcing DRM and content management in a centralised way).
So far as I can tell, HD really only offers better picture quality for content developed in HD. So I'm sure the video for Underworld Evolution looks great in HD however Citizen Kane won't look any better than it already does on DVD. Were people screaming out 6 years ago for higher bandwidth video content, are they screaming out for it now, will it change when the average home TV is 62" 16:9 or bigger?
AS ALWAYS prove me wrong children, prove me wrong.
Again I cant agree with this. HD movies ARE market driven, lots of big screen HD TVs are being sold, and many not so big screen TVs that are still HD. You can go into Costco right now and score a 32" Viewsonic HD LCD for $700. HD Digital Cable, HD Satellite, HD is everywhere and it seems very very wrong that the pinnacle and crown jewel of visual entertainment (the movie industry) is lagging horribly behind. Sure movies like Citizen Kane won't look any better but the technology for making these films has drastically changed. Modern movies DO look MUCH better in HD so why watch them on a second rate DVD player when you can rent view them through Shaw PPV or Xbox Live in HD now. Bring on the home format!
I guess market forces will decide in the end.
Don't forget that all of china is converting to EVD now too, so now there are 3 formats to deal with out there.
I doubt They'll export many EVD movies. Its a china specific format really.
Quote from: Tom on December 10, 2006, 11:30:24 AM
I doubt They'll export many EVD movies. Its a china specific format really.
But all those awesome Chinese movies! hehe