Maybe I'm trolling a bit here but seems like even with a complete lack of competition from HD-DVD, Blu-Ray hasn't fared so well.
http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/09/21/nielsen-videoscan-high-def-market-share-for-week-ending-septembe/
This upcoming holiday season will tell the story more accurately. If HD sales don't pick up this season then I would think that Blu-Ray/HD-DVD was a bit of an evolutionary cul-du-sac in video evolution.
As a think many have predicted we will more likely jump from DVD to direct digital distribution.
One commenter on that article says it right - Blu-Ray won the battle against HD-DVD, but the war is with all content distribution systems, and on that front Blu-Ray seems to be losing.
There does seem to be quite a bit of apathy towards Blu-Ray, though. People like me, willing to spend money on a new TV or player only when the old one breaks, don't see any value in upgrading to a more expensive player with more expensive discs when the old player still works. Throw in that it's a Sony product and it's a no-go (for me, anyway).