338Canada.com predictions vs. actual Alberta election 2019

[Darren Dirt]

338Canada.com predictions vs. actual Alberta election 2019 -- their methodology in the past few years seems to bw quite reliable ( see #metho )

http://alberta.338canada.com

https://blog.338canada.com/2018/11/welcome-to-338canada.html?#metho

The real question is likely to be, just HOW red "Redmonton" will be this time.

And also, fingers crossed, just how many of the *very reasonable ideas/policies of each of all the other parties* Mr. Kenney has the wisdom to adopt or at least publicly discuss early on... Otherwise just another divisive administration.


... visuals = http://alberta.338canada.com/map?opwvc=1
Lethbridge might be a dramatic outcome.

[Darren Dirt]

A strong opposition is healthy; I was really hoping the Alberta Party would be a closer match to NDP since Mandel has held his own in this "two party race", but when it comes to actual seats that seems unlikely...

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/338-alberta-update-ndp-grows-lead-in.html?m=1

[Thorin]

That's a good find, a Canadian version of fivethirtyeight.com.  When you're referring to Redmonton, are you still talking about the Alberta election?  Because Edmonton will go orange not red in the provincial election.  And federally, Edmonton will most likely go blue not red.

[Mr. Analog]

All I know is that this year's election cycle has been a train wreck and I'd vote for nobody if I could. Notley is the least worst in my opinion and so I'll be going orange again.

Actually no, I vote for China's manufacturing sector because once that gets humping again the price of oil will go up

[Mr. Analog]

Ah yes the well-known party the NPD...

[Darren Dirt]

NPD is French bro Original site is Quebec. Use Chrome and auto-translate!

...

/inhales

IMO Notley had 4 years to fulfill promises she made about the economy.

She did the opposite. **

In the leadership debate she did not redeem herself; when asked direct questions about failed actions she has taken and future actions she promises to take, she avoided being accountable to citizens of this great and nation-supporting province, instead she dishonestly attacked the character of her biggest threat.

And to many of us that screams weakness.

The people of Alberta, and the economy of Alberta, needs tough action and positive results. Canada needs us to reverse the descent.

We actually gave NDP a real chance, and enough time has now passed on this well-intentioned experiment to record it in history as a measurable failure.

** Some examples: https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/corbella-hoping-i-dont-feel-nauseous-again-on-election-night

PLUS, not to mention, as a public sector employee... the various morale-crushing changes (lots of veyeran staff jumping ship!) to the internal culture and endless half-day empty feel-good distractions imposed on those already overworked "fighting in the trenches" -- but I personally could overlook all that and take pride in pressing on, if the results were even close to what was promised.

Orange Crush could have a been historical and UNITING transformation, but imo Tuesday everywhere but [Red/Orange]monton will be an Orange Flush.

[Thorin]

With a couple of kids old enough to vote now and another one that'll be able to vote in the coming federal election, there's been a surprising amount of political discussion in my house.  I've tried to speak in a neutral tone about the issues, so they can make up their own minds.  For me it's all about how the money's going to be managed, and when I look at the math that the different parties have put forward, I end up seeing the NDP and the Alberta Party as the ones that seem the most realistic.

I'll end up voting NDP as a strategic vote, as it's pretty clear that this is shaping up to be UCP vs NDP.  Both parties are planning large deficits and to balloon the debt; the UCP's deficit is because they plan to give large tax breaks to large corporations thinking that'll stimulate the economy (it won't, the price of oil and natural gas skyrocketing will, though), whereas the NDP's deficit is because they plan to continue spending on infrastructure and services.

Personally, I'd rather have better infrastructure and services than a bunch of C-level execs getting large bonuses that they won't spend in this province anyways (and a lot of the saved tax money will go to shareholders from other parts of the world).  As an example that hits extremely close to home, the high school my kids go to / have gone to was slated for major reconstruction for several years, and recently (last year?) it was finally approved and was supposed to be started on, but they were a bit late starting the initial surveying and digging and then the election was called so all new construction was halted including for this school.  And the local UCP candidate used that project as an example of the type of project they plan to cancel to save money so they can lower taxes on giant oil corporations.  I'd rather have the school.

[Thorin]

Darren, as a government employee you might want to consider what Jason Kenney has been hinting at but not saying outright.  He would love to reduce wages for government employees.  Not just freeze them, but actually reduce them, like what apparently is happening in Manitoba.  https://edmontonsun.com/2017/03/28/pc-leader-jason-kenney-says-its-time-to-deal-with-high-alberta-public-sector-pay-and-perks/wcm/f6ec9e9c-5e43-4555-bdcf-d19d5351e889

UCP also wants to cut wages for people under 18 from $15 min to $13 min per hour, and they want to bring back rules that make it easier for employers to not pay any extra money to workers for stat holidays.  And why?  So that large corporations can get a tax break (small businesses with less than $500,000 in profit are already paying almost nothing in taxes).

The Progressive Conservatives got, what, 44 years in government to do things right?  And at the start they did well, but by the end after winning twelve elections (so twelve terms) they told us it was our fault that the province was going to run a giant deficit.  So why shouldn't the NDP get a second term?  Give 'em at least one-fifth the time that the conservatives got?

But ultimately, I don't want my government to hugely increase the debt without it paying for services and infrastructure.  And the UCP's plan is exactly that - increase the debt while decreasing the services and infrastructure.  It's the old trickle-down economics that Reagan touted that back then made a little sense because tax rates were so high.  But tax rates aren't high, top earners aren't paying 90% on their top bucket of income.

[Darren Dirt]

TBH I don't want to live on this Alberta anymore...

Can I vote partly for Kenney and partly for Mandel and partly for The Clown World Party?

At some point decades ago "Conservatives" big C were also conservative, finances wise. Seems that doesn't sell in #Canuckistan anymore so all the majors are leftwing parties.

So @%&# this @%&#, bring the chaos, so it seems accelerationism it is.

PS: Yes a wage CUT has happened to APS in the past, but back then there was plenty of fat needing to be trimmed, plus it was not after 7 years of wage FREEZE. Most of.us doing equivalent of 3 jobs, staying only for a decent pension and lots of vacay...

But, you know what, my psyche is tired of a whole lotta bull@%&#, so if that happens then "THEY PRETEND TO PAY US, WE PRETEND TO WORK" ;-) k
il
l m
e n
ow

[Darren Dirt]

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/nelson-notley-dances-with-the-one-who-brought-her
"[Last election, clearly] the 44-year PC rule needed to end: the party had become a shell whose mission was limited to clinging to power.

*What we got instead was a bunch of well-meaning neophytes so obsessed with social engineering they forgot the one true staple of Alberta political life. Do not trust Ottawa.*

They did and they?ll pay the price in a matter of hours. It was a tough lesson for them and an even tougher one for Alberta."



PS: stay "nice and friendly" San Diego. That is one consistent thing about us...

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/final-338-alberta-projection-available.html

[Darren Dirt]

Gonna end with this...

https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-the-anger-driven-by-ucp-and-ndp-campaigns-could-do-lasting-harm
"The well is already poisoned for the next legislature, no matter who?s running it.

When a political system is healthy, opponents on policy and ideology can still respect and like each other personally. *They often meet and collaborate on sensible answers for the public.*

That will be a lost art in the legislature, maybe for years. *Whichever party wins will stick its policies down the other?s throat.*"


^ ...sadly, I think this is a brutal truth, and a reminder of why decades ago I was going Full Libertarian... The myth of "representation". Instead the reality is 25%-60% of folks always feel their voice is ignored if not essentially silenced.

Since in Redmonton any non-NDP vote won't matter tomorrow, @%&# it what I really support is a lot of this anyway https://albertaindependence.ca/what-we-believe/


Thankfully my Real Life distracted me from this Dance Of Futility, really until quite recently when stuff within the workplace was just unavoidably overwhelming. I have to laugh, because it reminds me a ton of the most vocal so-called "anti-feminists" of the past few years -- "I JUST WANTED TO PLAY VIDEO GAMES".

Me, I just wanted to be left the hell alone, to take care of my family as I built cool stuff.

[Mr. Analog]

Some interesting numbers from the vote compass CBC shared a few weeks ago:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/vote-compass-polarization-1.5097246

[Thorin]

I hadn't seen this before: https://www.elections.ab.ca/current-election-information/unofficial-advance-poll-turnout/

235k advance votes in 2015, 696k advance votes in 2019, no wonder the news was saying there was a large turnout.  I don't know what that means, though.

And the NDP became the government because Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives split the conservative vote, whereas they've merged now (with a few scandals) so there won't be a split of the conservative vote.  The polls are predicting less conservative votes this time, though, since Wildrose and the PCs had over 50% of the vote together and the UCP is being predicted for about 45% of the vote.

I still wish Alberta would replace the first-past-the-post system with a decent proportional system.

[Darren Dirt]

Talking heads on radio were speculating it means a TON of angry people really want to either...
-make sure the incompetent NDP are punished (old folks)
-make sure the bigoted UCP don't win (young folks)

So... :shrug: I just hope there are enough raw numbers of protest votes like mine to SEND OTTAWA A MESSAGE/THREAT TO BTFO/GTFO

[Darren Dirt]

Well done Mr. Poutine...

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/977.html
"Out of 87 districts, the 338 electoral model correctly identified the winner in 82 of them.
The winner was correctly called or was within the confidence intervals in 85 of 87 districts (97.7%)."


...once the absentee ballots are counted, I am curious how close he was in the PV projection:
https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/final-338-alberta-projection-available.html

...and also if more than just "1" vote for Corey MacFadden http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/1040e.htm