RIP HD-DVD

[Mr. Analog]

HD-DVD is dead more or less, so of course that means more expensive Blu-Ray players for everyone!

[Thorin]

HD-DVD is dead more or less, so of course that means more expensive Blu-Ray players for everyone!

That article has some unsupported assumptions in it...

The majority of Blu-ray Disc movie purchases have to date been for consumers who own a Playstation 3, which has BD playback capabilities.

It's been fairly widely reported that most PS3 owners haven't bothered to buy a BD movie.  Of course, both the quoted statement and my statement are completely impossible to verify, as we don't question people who buy a BD movie at the store whether they own a PS3 or a stand-alone BD player.

By looking at these prices, it is pretty clear that the PS3 did in fact almost singlehandedly declare the winner of the format war.

Yeah.  It had nothing to do with what format the movie studios chose to support, it was all because of the PS3.  Sure.  Does he work for Sony, by any chance?

Ironically, although Blu-ray has been declared the winner, it is right now about the worst time to invest in a standalone Blu-ray player, because of the high prices and looming obsolescence. [..] my advice [..], buy a dirt cheap HD DVD player and some even cheaper HD DVD movies.

Now that I'll agree with.  I wonder, if enough HD-DVD players get bought up for cheap, will one or more of the movie studios change their mind about what format to publish on?

[Mr. Analog]

Now that I'll agree with.  I wonder, if enough HD-DVD players get bought up for cheap, will one or more of the movie studios change their mind about what format to publish on?

Probably not, movie studios are bitter, fearful, pink marshmallowy type creatures that follow trends only after they have become so overwhelmingly integrated and profitable that risk of financial failure is, at best, only something they've heard about in stories.

Blu-Ray is here for a while, unless that wonky Chinese HD format is allowed to develop outside China.

[Cova]

I could still see HD-DVD making a comeback - though the chances are pretty slim (I have to hope though).  If Toshiba opened as much of the spec as they can and allowed it to be used royalty-free, I think there'd still be enough of a market for some of the clone makers to keep building cheap drives/players.  Remember that BluRay makes AACS encryption mandatory on ALL disks - most newer BluRay players (profile 1.1+) will refuse to play non-encrypted content.  So the DIY market (which also includes the pirate market, which is potentially quite large) is forced to choose HD-DVD if they want a high-def disk.  Now I don't wanna condone piracy - but from the point of view of a chinese hardware manufacturer its in their best interests to make $ selling cheap HD-DVD burners/players.  Toshiba/MS can release the HD-i spec for free, AACS doesn't need to be released, and IMHO screw the studio's that all dropped the consumer-friendly format for the DRM-laden BluRay.

And the first potential actions of going down this road have already happened.  MS released the HD-DVD emulator software for 360 for free not too long ago - basically it allows you to test/debug HD-DVD projects (HD-i programming, etc.) from a USB HD or stream from a networked PC (requires you have a HD for the 360 as well as the 360 HD-DVD drive).  What they don't advertise is that it would also allow you to stream downloaded/ripped HD-DVD movies from your PC to 360.  More info about this available here:  http://blogs.msdn.com/amyd/archive/2008/03/04/xbox-360-hd-dvd-emulator-now-free.aspx

Thinking back to things like divx, xvid, and the mkv container - don't underestimate the effect that open-source, DIY, and pirating groups can have on video.  EVOB (the format HD-DVD uses, AKA Extended VOB, where VOB's are used on DVD) is a good container and could still take off, potentially creating demand for hardware players.