Bloodless Coup in Progress

[Mr. Analog]

Ok, no one has posted it yet and that either means they don't know about it or they don't feel it's worth talking about but here goes...

Right now there is a revolt happening in the House of Commons. The Opposition parties are forming a coalition to oust the Conservative party. The Liberals, the NDP (and the support of the Bloc) are temporarily joining forces to push the party in power out.

There is a confidence motion coming up next Monday that will decide if Harper's government should go, if that vote goes through the Governor General could call a snap poll or ask the opposition to form a new government.

BBC Article:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7760506.stm

Google News (aggregated):
http://news.google.ca/news?q=canada+opposition+coalition&btnG=Search+News

I first caught wind of this on Sunday and watched it develop yesterday. My thoughts are fairly polarized against the coalition (not that I love the PCs but...) any party that is supported by the Bloc immediately makes me uneasy and any party that gives Jack Layton any kind of power is fairly scary but consider this, the reason they are forming a Coalition is because they think that the PCs haven't done anything to stimulate the economy, that may or may not be the case (I'm no economic analyst) but their great plan for getting us out of the financial strain we are in is to dump money in to the auto industry and logging.

Say what? We're going to throw money into the pit that is GM/Ford/Chrysler the same group of corporations who are asking for a $6 Billion bailout in the United States at the moment? That seems like a great plan not fraught with risk.

I can see putting money in the logging industry because it would stimulate the East Coast provinces and Northern Ontario/Quebec but I'm quite sure that environmentalists will blow a gasket as well as the current lumber market being on the decline since 1999 (see http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-621-m/11-621-m2007055-eng.htm for more info) so while it would give a bunch of jobs to lower middle income people it could further weaken the wood market.

I dunno, I'm hoping that the Governor General vetoes this action fast.

What do you guys think?

[Darren Dirt]

Amazingly, the Edmonton Sun summarized it on the front page quite nicely.

it is WRONG for these power-hungry politicos to ignore "the will of the people", as expressed just a few weeks ago (or something like that)


As many of you know, I have my issues with so-called "representative" government (read Lysander Spooner writings on the web and you'll understand why it's a logical impossibility) however the very idea that you've got these idiots who have "agreed to play the game by the rules" then when they aren't "winning" they decide to whine and complain and ignore those rules to get the result they want... yeesh, grow up Dion & Co.!!!

[Mr. Analog]

Watching the clumsy attempt at "spin" is amusing though.

[Tonnica]

it's not democratic.

I was reading a Journal article about the affect the change would have on Alberta representation in the Canadian government. (article here)

There are 27 MPs representing Alberta. If a coalition government is formed after a vote of non-confidence then the number of MPs representing Alberta will drop to 1 MP. The other 26 MPs are all Conservative representatives and would be knocked out. 26 Conservative MPs is what the majority of the public voters in the province chose. Flip-flopping the results via this coup attempt will nearly silence the voice of Alberta. It will make this province that has such a strong oil and gas industry an easy target for mis-guided green and emissions initiatives. A cutting off of the nose to spite the face, so to speak.

I am wary of economic collapse at the hands of people who don't understand the natural resource industries of the western provinces.

[Mags]

Why was Jesus not born in Canada?

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Wait for it

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They couldn't find three wise men in the East.

[Melbosa]

I am wary of economic collapse at the hands of people who don't understand the natural resource industries of the western provinces.

This is my concern as well.  A major portion of Canada's wealth is produced and sold from west of Ontario, with Alberta leading the wealth producing numbers.  With little representation left at the federal level, and relying on Steady Eddie to represent our political face, I fear we may be in for the o-mighty political shaft!

[Mr. Analog]

Ugh, I forgot until this afternoon that the Governor General used to be married to a staunch Bloc supporter and was actually seen at separatist rallies.

Scary days my friends, scary days...

[Thorin]

In the 2004 election, the Liberals achieved a minority government (http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2004/default.html) and had to make deals with the NDP and the BQ in order to stay in power.  In the 2006 election, the Progressive Conservatives achieved a minority government (http://www.elections.ca/scripts/OVR2006/default.html) and had to make deals with the NDP and BQ in order to stay in power.  In the 2008 election, the Progressive Conservatives achieved a minority government (http://enr.elections.ca/National_e.aspx), and were expected to make deals with the NDP and BQ.

The connecting thread between those elections is that the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives oppose each other and will make deals with the minor parties (NDP and BQ) to stay in power.  In other words, they'll compromise their ideals (PC siding with an NDPer?  Whut whut?) for power.

As for them not playing within the rules, well, actually they are playing within the rules!  MPs are allowed to call for a vote of no confidence whenever major items are voted down in the House of Commons.  The Governor General then has the right to allow minor parties to band together into one larger party, or to force another election.  Hell, the Governor General has the right to rescind all laws and install 100% taxation, if the Queen orders it.

Anyway, the PCs and the Reform Party formed into one entity several years back to try and fight the Liberals, and now the Liberals are looking to do essentially the same.

As for the reason the vote of no confidence is being called for?  Well, lets just say it's a real dumbass move to try to pass a law that will restrict funds to a political party if that political party has the ability to kick you out of power just by befriending the devil (aka BQ).

[Thorin]

Oh, and I'm not particularly concerned about Stephane Dion being in power.  He's one of those people that doesn't "show" well but that thinks real well.  Meaning that he loses popularity contests but he thinks about his moves.  Much like Harper has done in the last couple of years, and much like Obama will do once he's in the White House.

Dion will figure out sooner rather than later that he has to show the West that he's not the Big Scary Monster he's been made out to be.  What his exact policies will be I'm not sure (they say one thing, then do another), but it can be expected to be typically Liberal with an NDP flavour - corporations will see less support and individuals will see more support.

Now, the idea of propping up GM, Ford, and Chrysler isn't actually that bad of an idea.  There are a lot of cars sold in the US that were made in Canada, and even if that market is down 30%, there's still billions upon billions of dollars in that industry.  And if you've been following the news about the Big Three, you'll see that they're submitting restructuring plans, cutting wages, removing executive bonuses, selling off fringe divisions that don't make them a lot of money (Ford sold Aston Martin, Land Rover, most of its stake in Mazda, and is looking to dump Volvo), and have all kinds of plans for smaller, more fuel-economic cars, including gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, etc.  So if they're asking for 25 billion in loans between the three of them and supplying detailed plans on how it will be used, and you compare that to the 150+ billion in gifts to American banking associations (AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) with no plans, I don't see why the American government should refuse them loans.  Oh, and the Canadian market is looking at loaning, not giving, them money.

[Mr. Analog]

I think the thing that is surprising most Canadians is that this is a very rare political move not done since 1917.

We are also seeing the Coalition parties use the bad economy as the reasoning but our economy would be suffering no matter what our government was doing because of our ties to the United States.

It also wasn't that long ago that we had a Federal election, and I think as a voter this kind of feels like the coalition is simply unhappy with the result of the vote and is simply imposing a government on us.

This reaction is most certainly very un-Dude! And will not stand, man.

[Mr. Analog]

Dion will figure out sooner rather than later that he has to show the West that he's not the Big Scary Monster he's been made out to be.  What his exact policies will be I'm not sure (they say one thing, then do another), but it can be expected to be typically Liberal with an NDP flavour - corporations will see less support and individuals will see more support.

Well, hopefully, but has he expressed any interest of supporting the West in the past? Certainly in the last election he didn't.

Now, the idea of propping up GM, Ford, and Chrysler isn't actually that bad of an idea.  There are a lot of cars sold in the US that were made in Canada, and even if that market is down 30%, there's still billions upon billions of dollars in that industry.  And if you've been following the news about the Big Three, you'll see that they're submitting restructuring plans, cutting wages, removing executive bonuses, selling off fringe divisions that don't make them a lot of money (Ford sold Aston Martin, Land Rover, most of its stake in Mazda, and is looking to dump Volvo), and have all kinds of plans for smaller, more fuel-economic cars, including gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, etc.  So if they're asking for 25 billion in loans between the three of them and supplying detailed plans on how it will be used, and you compare that to the 150+ billion in gifts to American banking associations (AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac) with no plans, I don't see why the American government should refuse them loans.  Oh, and the Canadian market is looking at loaning, not giving, them money.

The official pledge from GM is:

[GM] said it would continue its efforts to develop more fuel efficient vehicles, including an investment of $2.9bn in alternative fuels, and cut costs, levels of debt and top executives' pay.

GM pledged to reduce its chief executive Rick Wagoner's pay to just one dollar a year.

In Ford's case:

Ford made a similar pledge, but only should it need to call on the emergency loan.

It also said it would sell its five corporate jets as part of its cost-cutting plan.

Other measures could include selling some businesses, such as Swedish carmaker Volvo.

Ford also said a $14bn investment was needed in new technologies in the next seven years in order to improve fuel efficiency.

It seems to me that they have bigger problems than just streamlining their business...

Source:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7761015.stm

Giving to the auto & lumber industries certainly supports economic woes of Eastern Canada, but with the loss of so many Western MPs who will be there to help our provinces if the price of oil continues to stay low.

Right now all the big Oilsands expansion projects are stopped. They may resume when the American economy picks up, but that's another problem Canada has to face. The American consumer market has really slowed down. So badly that companies in China have been laying off so many people at once the Chinese government had to step in and add some legislation (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7735205.stm). Pouring money into consumer products (cars) and raw building materials (lumber) seems like a bad idea during a recession to me (but as i said before, I'm no economic analyst).

Why not invest in education, social programs and perhaps monkey around with market interest rates to get people buying things and investing in businesses?

[Darren Dirt]

it's not democratic.

I was reading a Journal article about the affect the change would have on Alberta representation in the Canadian government. (article here)

There are 27 MPs representing Alberta. If a coalition government is formed after a vote of non-confidence then the number of MPs representing Alberta will drop to 1 MP. The other 26 MPs are all Conservative representatives and would be knocked out. 26 Conservative MPs is what the majority of the public voters in the province chose. Flip-flopping the results via this coup attempt will nearly silence the voice of Alberta. It will make this province that has such a strong oil and gas industry an easy target...

*cough*secession*cough*

[Melbosa]

It also wasn't that long ago that we had a Federal election, and I think as a voter this kind of feels like the coalition is simply unhappy with the result of the vote and is simply imposing a government on us.

I think this is a major driver behind people's reaction to the current events.  As bad as it sounds, it compares to winning a key close hockey game, but before you release the results of the play-off standings, someone puts a bid to remove your honest win based on a rule that hasn't been raised in almost a century (but still exists in the books).  Looks like a sore loser trying to win at any cost.

Now it is much more complicated than that, and more intricate as we are all indicating here, and probably even more detailed than my poor non-political brain can handle!  But to the average Canadian, voter or not, this I believe is the perception.  When I think about it, the PCs haven't even had a chance to release the Budget, the plan, for Canada yet, and already we have a no-confidence process on the go?  Again this adds to the perception that all this is for personal retribution or gain in the eyes of Joe Average.

Anyway, that is what I've been hearing from PC and Liberal supporters alike.  Even my Parents that live in Manitoba - historically a socialist province, and a poor prairie one - are hearing the same thing and feel the same way. My mother works for the CRA, by the way encase you didn't know; which might sway her a bit in favour of the PCs, but historically she has opposed PC political views, and even did so in the last election.

[Lazybones]

The fact that this would depend on the Bloc and that Liberal leader is so unpopular make this move sound crazy. I don't want the country run by this cobbled together mess.

It will be interesting how the Governor General fits into this, as they have been reporting she had past ties to the Bloc.

[Tom]

Now, the idea of propping up GM, Ford, and Chrysler isn't actually that bad of an idea.

Or let them fail and have some other company with better financial status pick up whatever pieces are viable. This is how the free market works, I wish it worked more often, but many times its not allowed to work as it should out of fear.

Yes it sucks that some people might loose jobs, but theres a damned good chance they'll get new ones, or keep their jobs if/when other companies pick up the pieces.

Oh, and I'm not particularly concerned about Stephane Dion being in power.

Me either, but not for the same reason. He'll be replaced in the spring. And we'll probably get someone even less capable.

None of our options are any good. They all suck.