338Canada.com predictions vs. actual Alberta election 2019

[Darren Dirt]

338Canada.com predictions vs. actual Alberta election 2019 -- their methodology in the past few years seems to bw quite reliable ( see #metho )

http://alberta.338canada.com

https://blog.338canada.com/2018/11/welcome-to-338canada.html?#metho

The real question is likely to be, just HOW red "Redmonton" will be this time.

And also, fingers crossed, just how many of the *very reasonable ideas/policies of each of all the other parties* Mr. Kenney has the wisdom to adopt or at least publicly discuss early on... Otherwise just another divisive administration.


... visuals = http://alberta.338canada.com/map?opwvc=1
Lethbridge might be a dramatic outcome.

[Darren Dirt]

A strong opposition is healthy; I was really hoping the Alberta Party would be a closer match to NDP since Mandel has held his own in this "two party race", but when it comes to actual seats that seems unlikely...

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/338-alberta-update-ndp-grows-lead-in.html?m=1

[Thorin]

That's a good find, a Canadian version of fivethirtyeight.com.  When you're referring to Redmonton, are you still talking about the Alberta election?  Because Edmonton will go orange not red in the provincial election.  And federally, Edmonton will most likely go blue not red.

[Mr. Analog]

All I know is that this year's election cycle has been a train wreck and I'd vote for nobody if I could. Notley is the least worst in my opinion and so I'll be going orange again.

Actually no, I vote for China's manufacturing sector because once that gets humping again the price of oil will go up

[Mr. Analog]

Ah yes the well-known party the NPD...

[Darren Dirt]

NPD is French bro Original site is Quebec. Use Chrome and auto-translate!

...

/inhales

IMO Notley had 4 years to fulfill promises she made about the economy.

She did the opposite. **

In the leadership debate she did not redeem herself; when asked direct questions about failed actions she has taken and future actions she promises to take, she avoided being accountable to citizens of this great and nation-supporting province, instead she dishonestly attacked the character of her biggest threat.

And to many of us that screams weakness.

The people of Alberta, and the economy of Alberta, needs tough action and positive results. Canada needs us to reverse the descent.

We actually gave NDP a real chance, and enough time has now passed on this well-intentioned experiment to record it in history as a measurable failure.

** Some examples: https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/corbella-hoping-i-dont-feel-nauseous-again-on-election-night

PLUS, not to mention, as a public sector employee... the various morale-crushing changes (lots of veyeran staff jumping ship!) to the internal culture and endless half-day empty feel-good distractions imposed on those already overworked "fighting in the trenches" -- but I personally could overlook all that and take pride in pressing on, if the results were even close to what was promised.

Orange Crush could have a been historical and UNITING transformation, but imo Tuesday everywhere but [Red/Orange]monton will be an Orange Flush.

[Thorin]

With a couple of kids old enough to vote now and another one that'll be able to vote in the coming federal election, there's been a surprising amount of political discussion in my house.  I've tried to speak in a neutral tone about the issues, so they can make up their own minds.  For me it's all about how the money's going to be managed, and when I look at the math that the different parties have put forward, I end up seeing the NDP and the Alberta Party as the ones that seem the most realistic.

I'll end up voting NDP as a strategic vote, as it's pretty clear that this is shaping up to be UCP vs NDP.  Both parties are planning large deficits and to balloon the debt; the UCP's deficit is because they plan to give large tax breaks to large corporations thinking that'll stimulate the economy (it won't, the price of oil and natural gas skyrocketing will, though), whereas the NDP's deficit is because they plan to continue spending on infrastructure and services.

Personally, I'd rather have better infrastructure and services than a bunch of C-level execs getting large bonuses that they won't spend in this province anyways (and a lot of the saved tax money will go to shareholders from other parts of the world).  As an example that hits extremely close to home, the high school my kids go to / have gone to was slated for major reconstruction for several years, and recently (last year?) it was finally approved and was supposed to be started on, but they were a bit late starting the initial surveying and digging and then the election was called so all new construction was halted including for this school.  And the local UCP candidate used that project as an example of the type of project they plan to cancel to save money so they can lower taxes on giant oil corporations.  I'd rather have the school.

[Thorin]

Darren, as a government employee you might want to consider what Jason Kenney has been hinting at but not saying outright.  He would love to reduce wages for government employees.  Not just freeze them, but actually reduce them, like what apparently is happening in Manitoba.  https://edmontonsun.com/2017/03/28/pc-leader-jason-kenney-says-its-time-to-deal-with-high-alberta-public-sector-pay-and-perks/wcm/f6ec9e9c-5e43-4555-bdcf-d19d5351e889

UCP also wants to cut wages for people under 18 from $15 min to $13 min per hour, and they want to bring back rules that make it easier for employers to not pay any extra money to workers for stat holidays.  And why?  So that large corporations can get a tax break (small businesses with less than $500,000 in profit are already paying almost nothing in taxes).

The Progressive Conservatives got, what, 44 years in government to do things right?  And at the start they did well, but by the end after winning twelve elections (so twelve terms) they told us it was our fault that the province was going to run a giant deficit.  So why shouldn't the NDP get a second term?  Give 'em at least one-fifth the time that the conservatives got?

But ultimately, I don't want my government to hugely increase the debt without it paying for services and infrastructure.  And the UCP's plan is exactly that - increase the debt while decreasing the services and infrastructure.  It's the old trickle-down economics that Reagan touted that back then made a little sense because tax rates were so high.  But tax rates aren't high, top earners aren't paying 90% on their top bucket of income.

[Darren Dirt]

TBH I don't want to live on this Alberta anymore...

Can I vote partly for Kenney and partly for Mandel and partly for The Clown World Party?

At some point decades ago "Conservatives" big C were also conservative, finances wise. Seems that doesn't sell in #Canuckistan anymore so all the majors are leftwing parties.

So @%&# this @%&#, bring the chaos, so it seems accelerationism it is.

PS: Yes a wage CUT has happened to APS in the past, but back then there was plenty of fat needing to be trimmed, plus it was not after 7 years of wage FREEZE. Most of.us doing equivalent of 3 jobs, staying only for a decent pension and lots of vacay...

But, you know what, my psyche is tired of a whole lotta bull@%&#, so if that happens then "THEY PRETEND TO PAY US, WE PRETEND TO WORK" ;-) k
il
l m
e n
ow

[Darren Dirt]

https://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/nelson-notley-dances-with-the-one-who-brought-her
"[Last election, clearly] the 44-year PC rule needed to end: the party had become a shell whose mission was limited to clinging to power.

*What we got instead was a bunch of well-meaning neophytes so obsessed with social engineering they forgot the one true staple of Alberta political life. Do not trust Ottawa.*

They did and they?ll pay the price in a matter of hours. It was a tough lesson for them and an even tougher one for Alberta."



PS: stay "nice and friendly" San Diego. That is one consistent thing about us...

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/final-338-alberta-projection-available.html

[Darren Dirt]

Gonna end with this...

https://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/braid-the-anger-driven-by-ucp-and-ndp-campaigns-could-do-lasting-harm
"The well is already poisoned for the next legislature, no matter who?s running it.

When a political system is healthy, opponents on policy and ideology can still respect and like each other personally. *They often meet and collaborate on sensible answers for the public.*

That will be a lost art in the legislature, maybe for years. *Whichever party wins will stick its policies down the other?s throat.*"


^ ...sadly, I think this is a brutal truth, and a reminder of why decades ago I was going Full Libertarian... The myth of "representation". Instead the reality is 25%-60% of folks always feel their voice is ignored if not essentially silenced.

Since in Redmonton any non-NDP vote won't matter tomorrow, @%&# it what I really support is a lot of this anyway https://albertaindependence.ca/what-we-believe/


Thankfully my Real Life distracted me from this Dance Of Futility, really until quite recently when stuff within the workplace was just unavoidably overwhelming. I have to laugh, because it reminds me a ton of the most vocal so-called "anti-feminists" of the past few years -- "I JUST WANTED TO PLAY VIDEO GAMES".

Me, I just wanted to be left the hell alone, to take care of my family as I built cool stuff.

[Mr. Analog]

Some interesting numbers from the vote compass CBC shared a few weeks ago:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/vote-compass-polarization-1.5097246

[Thorin]

I hadn't seen this before: https://www.elections.ab.ca/current-election-information/unofficial-advance-poll-turnout/

235k advance votes in 2015, 696k advance votes in 2019, no wonder the news was saying there was a large turnout.  I don't know what that means, though.

And the NDP became the government because Wildrose and Progressive Conservatives split the conservative vote, whereas they've merged now (with a few scandals) so there won't be a split of the conservative vote.  The polls are predicting less conservative votes this time, though, since Wildrose and the PCs had over 50% of the vote together and the UCP is being predicted for about 45% of the vote.

I still wish Alberta would replace the first-past-the-post system with a decent proportional system.

[Darren Dirt]

Talking heads on radio were speculating it means a TON of angry people really want to either...
-make sure the incompetent NDP are punished (old folks)
-make sure the bigoted UCP don't win (young folks)

So... :shrug: I just hope there are enough raw numbers of protest votes like mine to SEND OTTAWA A MESSAGE/THREAT TO BTFO/GTFO

[Darren Dirt]

Well done Mr. Poutine...

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/977.html
"Out of 87 districts, the 338 electoral model correctly identified the winner in 82 of them.
The winner was correctly called or was within the confidence intervals in 85 of 87 districts (97.7%)."


...once the absentee ballots are counted, I am curious how close he was in the PV projection:
https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/final-338-alberta-projection-available.html

...and also if more than just "1" vote for Corey MacFadden http://alberta.338canada.com/districts/1040e.htm

[Lazybones]

Alberta elects its first assistant trailer park supervisor as Premier
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2019/04/alberta-elects-its-first-assistant-trailer-park-supervisor-as-premier/

[Darren Dirt]

I see now the link is Beaverton... but when I first saw the heading I was prepared to find that it was CBC.
PS: okay Mr. Kenney now it's time to fulfill the promises! https://www.thebeaverton.com/2019/04/kenney-vows-to-personally-strangle-every-bc-resident/

[Thorin]

I see now the link is Beaverton... but when I first saw the heading I was prepared to find that it was CBC.
PS: okay Mr. Kenney now it's time to fulfill the promises! https://www.thebeaverton.com/2019/04/kenney-vows-to-personally-strangle-every-bc-resident/

Are you suggesting Kenney should strangle Lazy?

[Darren Dirt]

I see now the link is Beaverton... but when I first saw the heading I was prepared to find that it was CBC.
PS: okay Mr. Kenney now it's time to fulfill the promises! https://www.thebeaverton.com/2019/04/kenney-vows-to-personally-strangle-every-bc-resident/

Are you suggesting Kenney should strangle Lazy?

That was another link to the satirical Beaverton, aka OF COURSE NOT!

...although future gas prices will likely do the job anyway

[Lazybones]

...although future gas prices will likely do the job anyway

LOTS of used electric and hybrids on the market here.. PILES of Telsa's on the road.. I can dream.

I commute 100% via transit and the Mazda 5 is not bad on gas.

[Tom]

All I know is that this year's election cycle has been a train wreck and I'd vote for nobody if I could. Notley is the least worst in my opinion and so I'll be going orange again.

Ditto. Green was an actual option here in EVG. But I didn't feel their platform quite aligned with what we need this time around. Wanted to vote green last time, but things have changed since then. So yeah. I voted Orange. And EDM is 100% orange it would seem, but they lost all cgy votes afaics and any northern votes. the last vote map I saw was completely blue except edmonton.

I overheard a guy talking on election day that he will vote (or voted) for the UCP cause they "promised" reducing cigarette and alcohol tax. *SIGH*. That'd make me mad if I really cared that much. Frustrated a bit that they can't see past their own nose, but I can imagine they just don't care and probably think all parties are just as bad so just vote for the one that'll save you the most in the short term I guess? w/e.

I'm betting Kenny and co (assuming they don't get booted due to corruption charges. I HIGHLY doubt that they would. maybe some fines or smth or a dismissal or they stall it long enough for the rcmp/proscecutors to give up?) run the province similarly to the previous PCs except worse. Their current platform what little of it they finally released (a few?) weeks before the election is just more of the same conservative BS about trickledown, giving hand-jobs to their rich pals and punishing the poor.

[Thorin]

They did release a very detailed policy about what they would do if elected, it's found here: https://www.albertastrongandfree.ca/policy/.  It's a long read.  Some of the things they say make sense, many of the things they say in their policy are business-positive worker-negative.

For instance https://www.albertastrongandfree.ca/telling-job-creators-that-alberta-is-open-for-business/, expand the section "The NDP's Failed Policies", look for the heading "Failed NDP Policies - High Cost", then look for the bullet point starting with "Holiday pay". Here's the wording:

Holiday pay ? Restaurants have been forced to pay all staff holiday pay, even when a restaurant isn?t open on the holiday. Having to pay all staff statutory holiday pay to not work on days when the business is closed adds a significant labour cost, which small businesses find unfair.

Think about that for a minute.  Kenney wants to help restaurants not pay workers if the restaurant is closed for a statutory holiday.  Now think about how you'd feel if you were suddenly told that you're taking tomorrow off because it's Good Friday and by the way you're not getting paid for it.  Wouldn't you be furious that your employer is breaking provincial law, federal law, and going against well-established case law?

Now expand the section "UCP Policies That Will Create Jobs and Prosperity", then look for the bullet point starting with "Appoint a Minimum Wage Expert Panel".  Here's the wording:

Appoint a Minimum Wage Expert Panel to
[..]
? assess whether hospitality industry workers who serve alcohol would likely generate higher net incomes (i.e. by working more hours) with a wage differential similar to those that exist in Ontario Quebec and British Columbia

Here, Kenney is suggesting that if he lets restaurants pay servers less per hour (specifically he's talking about making a lower minimum wage for servers), they'll make more total money because they'll get more hours.  Which is disingenuous, because one would assume the restaurants are already only employing workers for as little hours as they need them, so dropping the per-hour wage would just reduce what the restaurants need to pay out.  Why would a restaurant keep employees around longer and spend more on labour than they need to?  That whole industry is already rife with business owners who screw over employees, they're not suddenly gonna get magnanimous overnight.

So put those two things together and you can see that Kenney has a hard-on for screwing over your local waiters and waitresses by letting restaurants pay them less and removing their stat holiday pay, even while he complains about NDP policies that actually helped them.

By the way, I didn't read the entire policy, the pdf document is 114 pages and eventually my eyes glazed over because there's constant little digs at the NDP rather than just providing facts.  But it doesn't address why the oil sector isn't doing so well - it does point out that oil&gas are doing poorly, then it tries to lay blame at the NDP's "failed policies", but nowhere did I find anything talking about why Alberta's dilbit (diluted bitumen) was being sold at such an extreme discount nor how Kenney would ensure that extreme discount was removed.  And this is important, because even if the price of oil skyrockets, if Alberta continues to sell oil at an extreme discount then it will have difficulty competing for investment and workers.

This does a good job of showing the price differential, and how Alberta's oil was more than $40 cheaper per barrel at times in 2018 than the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price we always see quoted in the papers: https://economicdashboard.alberta.ca/OilPrice
And this does a good job describing the different oils and why there's a price differential no matter what: https://www.oilsandsmagazine.com/technical/product-streams

But the thing to really pay attention to here is why the price-per-barrel differential (or "discount") got so big in 2018.  It turns out that there was more dilbit being created (increasing supply) with not enough pipeline capacity to ship it so American refineries were not buying more because they had no way of getting more to them (stagnant demand), so the market followed the typical supply-demand rule and the price dropped (ie the discount increased)).  Notley forced companies to curtail their output, the supply dwindled, and the price raised (ie the discount decreased).  Then she put together a plan to ship more oil outside of the pipeline using rail so that American refineries could get more (increasing demand), which would then allow output to increase (increasing supply) without affecting the discount.

And Kenney's platform mentions none of this as far as I read, other than that he wants to scrap the oil-by-rail contracts, thus likely causing the discount to skyrocket again, which in turn means less oil revenue for the government.

Of course, if OPEC and Russia stick to their combined plan to curtail output to raise oil prices to the range of $70 to $80 per barrel WTI, and if the Alberta government can support the oil industry in such a way that the discount stays around $20 per barrel, then Kenney's government will see 50% more revenue from oil than Notley's government had.  And yeah, that's gonna make it seem like he's a mastermind at making economies recover, when it actually has nothing to do with him, and everything to do with people like Vladimir Putin and Mohammad bin Salman agreeing to drive the price of oil up.

[Darren Dirt]

All I know is that this year's election cycle has been a train wreck and I'd vote for nobody if I could. Notley is the least worst in my opinion and so I'll be going orange again.

Ditto. Green was an actual option here in EVG. But I didn't feel their platform quite aligned with what we need this time around. Wanted to vote green last time, but things have changed since then. So yeah. I voted Orange. And EDM is 100% orange it would seem, but they lost all cgy votes afaics and any northern votes. the last vote map I saw was completely blue except edmonton.

I overheard a guy talking on election day that he will vote (or voted) for the UCP cause they "promised" reducing cigarette and alcohol tax. *SIGH*. That'd make me mad if I really cared that much. Frustrated a bit that they can't see past their own nose, but I can imagine they just don't care and probably think all parties are just as bad so just vote for the one that'll save you the most in the short term I guess? w/e.

I'm betting Kenny and co (assuming they don't get booted due to corruption charges. I HIGHLY doubt that they would. maybe some fines or smth or a dismissal or they stall it long enough for the rcmp/proscecutors to give up?) run the province similarly to the previous PCs except worse. Their current platform what little of it they finally released (a few?) weeks before the election is just more of the same conservative BS about trickledown, giving hand-jobs to their rich pals and punishing the poor.

Visuals help see that the non-Edmonton parts of Alberta aren't just conservative blue.
They are mostly DARK blue.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election

PS: 16000 Albertans voted the mainstream Liberal Party.
12000 voted the "gringe" Independence Party.

O_O
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_separatism#2010s_resurgence
"A February 2019 poll from Angus Reid found 50% of Albertans would support secession from Canada." ( https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/a-new-poll-suggests-alberta-is-the-province-that-most-wants-to-separate-from-canada-not-quebec )
Top Comment: Sandra Grantham
1 month ago
I've been telling easterners this for quite some time. No one takes it seriously, but they should. People in Alberta are angry. I lived through both Quebec referendums, in Quebec, and the separation sentiment in Alberta right now makes Quebec separation threats look like a walk in the park. The more this attitude towards Alberta continues, the higher the percentage of separatists there will be....until the Rubicon has been crossed.

[Thorin]

Visuals help see that the non-Edmonton parts of Alberta aren't just conservative blue.
They are mostly DARK blue.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Alberta_general_election

While I agree that colour gradations help show how much support the party has in a riding, using a geographical map like this highly skews the visual towards whatever party is popular in rural ridings.  The northernmost five ridings in this geographical map below (from wikipedia) make up almost half the picture of the province (partly because the projection has squared off the province, so it's an even worse geographical map).  We should instead be using equal-area maps to show party support, and can then still use gradations like before, and it would be a much better representation.