Oilers Trade Penner for ... what?

[Thorin]

Dustin Penner has been traded to Los Angeles for Colten Teubert (an AHL player?!), a first-round pick in the upcoming 2011 draft (probably 20th overall?), and a third-round pick in the following 2012 draft.  WHAT-THE-FRONTDOOR?!

Penner and his family apparently kinda liked it here, too, and during his press conference he had all kinds of nice to say about the Oilers and his time here.  Here's his press conference: http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=100343

Most of the analysts I listen to think this is a bad deal, from a timing perspective, an actual value perspective, and even a re-building perspective.  Bad timing, because he could've been traded at the draft.  Bad value, because he's a top-three player and he's been replaced with a player that's not even in the NHL plus a couple of picks that may never pan out.  Bad for re-building, because he was doing well helping H.O.P.E. improve their game (Hall, Omark, Paajarvi, Eberle).

To me, this feels like a lite version of when they traded Ryan Smyth away.

[Melbosa]

Has me wondering as well... At least, as was the original rumour, it isn't Hemsky, as I would feel even more jipped if it was him (I think we can get better value out of a Hemsky trade than a Penner trade).  Still more possibilities out there for the Oil.

[Mr. Analog]

I have little love for Penner but I find myself confused by this move as well. What's going on behind closed doors I wonder?

[Thorin]

From what I've seen, Penner has been steadily improving his game over the last four years, and having him on your line will improve your play.  He also never has anything bad to say about the organization or fellow players, is quick to admit to mistakes he's made, and apparently helps to make everyone feel welcome and at ease in the dressing room.  To go along with that, he makes sure not to get caught up in the glamour of it all (glamour?  celeb status?), staying very level-headed even though he's making millions of dollars a year.

Jason Strudwick is a leader in the dressing room, a friendly father figure with half a life of experience but unfortunately not nearly enough talent to really play in the NHL full-time anymore.  Dustin Penner is very much like Strudwick, except he's a top-six winger (well, on the Oilers he is, we'll see where he plays on the Kings).

At least, that's based on the blogs I've read and the press conferences I've seen.

[Mr. Analog]

Well, looking at Penner's Plus/Minus over the last three seasons and you see a different story. '08-'09 season was pretty good, '09-'10 season kinda not so good, this season? In the tank along with Gagner, Gilbert, Cogs, Strudwick...

Points wise he's in our top 3, behind Hall and Hemsky. Hall's just a kid and Hemsky is injury prone but still above the +/-, so looking at just the stats he's a good sell because he can get points, defensively he's costly to Edmonton (again, just looking at the +/- here).

Sure he might be the glue and a super-nice guy or whatever, but he's also a trade-able asset, one that's costing us right now...

[Thorin]

The last couple of years I've been following David Staples' blog, Cult Of Hockey.  He re-watches every game and counts scoring chances rather than actual goals, and he works out individual plus/minus instead of team +/- like is shown in the stats. I think he also makes his data available for peer review, if you were inclined to double-check his numbers.

If you look at this year's +/-, Steve Macintyre is way better than Taylor Hall.  Yet we all know, watching the game, that it's much better having Hall on the ice leaking goals against than having Macintyre on the ice doing nothing.

In Staples' individual plus/minus, Penner is consistently in the top three to five of the Oilers.  Cult of Hockey posts tagged Report Card or Statistics usually contain Staples' individual plus/minus stat table.

There's another set of stats out there, quality of competition and quality of teammate.  If Sidney Crosby is playing against Steve Macintyre, you can bet that Crosby will get an awesome +/-.  I haven't looked too closely at these stats, but in general Penner was up against the first line of other teams, while he often had one or even two rookies put on his line - rookies who thus far get lots of shots for but also lots of shots against.  When Staples' individual plus/minus is combined with the level of competition stats, you can actually see that the rookies' numbers are better when they're on the ice with Penner, and worse when they're not.  Thus the numbers seem to bear out that he really does improve his linemates.

Here's an article from Staples that shows the exact problem with +/- as counted by the NHL: Bad Line Change Causes Goal.

Oh, there's a couple other stats I've only read about and never looked up data for: Corsi +/- and ZoneStart.  All of these non-official stats are done by people who are very passionate about the game, and some of them spend way too much of their free time compiling it all...

[Mr. Analog]

Well, I'm just saying for a guy who sucks $6 million a year and who would be a free agent next year I think the Oil made the right choice.

I wonder if they are gonna play Teubert tonight!

[Thorin]

Penner gets $4.25mil and has the exact same cap hit.  He's also not a free agent next year, we'd still have him play for another year.  Which means we could have tried to get more for him at the draft or during next season.

Teubert won't get called up.  He's bouncing back and forth between the Regina Pats (WHL) and the Ottawa Reign (ECHL).  Keep in mind that ECHL is considered "pro" and equivalent to AHL, while WHL is not.  So basically he's bumping back and forth between two levels down and one level down from NHL.  I'm guessing it'll be two years at least before he moves up in the organization, probably playing for Oklahoma City in the AHL until other, better defensemen have been given their turn in the NHL.  D-men take longer to become NHL-ready than forwards, normally.

Apparently Richard Petiot is being called up for D, though.  Which means one of our d-men might be injured and not playing.

[Mr. Analog]

That's been the story of Penner's career with Edmonton "wait until he develops", well now we don't have to wait anymore

I'm looking forward to more new blood even if it means trading a few friendly points-getters to get 'em

I'm glad to see that Petiot is coming up tonight, we need fresh D badly

Not to happy with the goaltending selection for tonight though, I'd like to see Gerber in net more often...

[Thorin]

Hmm, last year Penner was first in points (63), second in points per game (0.77/game, behind Hemsky with 1.00/game), third in +/- (+6, only 1 behind Hemsky and Whittney both at +7), second in shooting percentage (15.8%, behind Colin MacDonald who played two games, shot three times and got one in for a 33.3%).  I dare say we were no longer waiting for him to develop and was one of our best forwards on the ice last year.  Sure, Hemsky dances better and gets more points when he plays, but Penner gets hurt less often (if ever, beyond the flu?).  The individual plus/minus, individual scoring chances, Corsi +/-, and other unofficial stats showed he was very strong as well last year.

This year the official numbers have plummeted (at least the +/-), but the unofficial stats still show a strong player.

Penner will do very well with the Kings, as there are several other very strong players that will enable him to get many more points, just like Alex Burrows has such high numbers with Vancouver because his linemates are almost always the Sedin twins (man, they could even make Steve Macintyre look like a top-six forward).

The problem the Oilers are having with D, in my opinion, is that they have one really good one and when he gets hurt or leaves, we're left with nothing.  When Pronger left, we didn't have any other Super-D.  We got Visnovsky, who did really well, but then we traded him.  We got Souray, who was almost a Super-D the one season he was healthy.  We got Ryan Whitney, who is about as good as Visnovsky and close to Pronger's level, but then he got hurt.  What we need is two Super-D so that if one is out the other's still in the lineup.  And if they're both on, pair them each with one of the up-and-coming D.

Wifey tells me Gerber will probably get the start tonight.  Man, talk about a guy who has fire for the game!  At 36 he's still dying to push his way into the NHL!  Might actually be an interesting game to watch against Nashville - Nashville is trying hard to get into the playoffs, so won't let up, and Gerber is looking to prove himself so will be on his A-game.  Oh, and with Penner gone, there's another spot open for a winger; I wonder who they'll put there?

[Mr. Analog]

Agreed on the D part!

I thought they were putting in Dubnyk tonight?

[Thorin]

Sounds like:

Paajarvi Horcoff Hemsky
Hall Cogliano Eberle
Omark Gagner Jones
Jacques Reddox/Fraser Brule/Macintyre

Smid Gilbert
Petiot Chorney
Vandermeer Foster

Gerber
Dubnyk

None of that is for sure, though.

[Mr. Analog]

Damn! Now I'm looking forward to game time

[CowGirl]

What a game.  Really enjoyed that one.  And if anyone can tell me why gerber isn't our number 1 it would be greatly appreciated.

[Mr. Analog]

What a game.  Really enjoyed that one.  And if anyone can tell me why gerber isn't our number 1 it would be greatly appreciated.

Agreed! That was a fun game and I think Gerber should be in regular rotation, if not our primary go-to goalie